We talked about it in the offseason, when it became apparent the Tigers were not going to add a major-league hitter via free agency. We talked about it on Opening Day, when Shane McClanahan shoved for six innings and the Tigers failed to score against the Rays.
And now here we are in June. There have been many things to like about a Tigers team that entered the season with zero expectations. But for every good game, every strong series, every solid pitching outing and a few offensive bright spots, the Tigers have continued to be hampered by a tragic flaw: They just can’t hit. No matter how many pinch-hitters A.J. Hinch calls for at the right time, no matter how many times Zach McKinstry proves his worth, the Tigers’ offense as a collective isn’t getting better.
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Detroit lost 1-0 to the Phillies on Tuesday, their fifth consecutive loss. The Tigers entered play ranking 28th in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging. They are hitting a putrid .207 with runners in scoring position, perhaps an indictment of the team’s situational hitting ability or perhaps a statistical oddity bound to correct itself.
We all know the problems. But are there any realistic solutions?
Still waiting on a Torkelson breakout
On the morning Riley Greene went on the injured list with a left leg injury, Spencer Torkelson got asked whether Greene’s absence could make him feel more pressure to carry the team’s lineup.
“I don’t think that will be an issue,” Torkelson said. “I think it’s just going out there, keep doing what I’ve been doing, and whatever that is, it’s gonna work out.”
Torkelson this year has indeed seemed more composed, more confident and more relaxed. His body language has rarely resembled the rookie who pressed through much of last season.
But after Tuesday’s 0-for-3, Torkelson is hitting .227 with only five home runs. Now 650 plate appearances into his MLB career, he has a .212 average and .294 career on-base percentage.
Dismal as those numbers might appear, Torkelson’s underlying metrics — numbers we have turned to many times in Torkelson’s young career — have only grown more encouraging. Torkelson entered Tuesday ranking in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate. His 92 mph average exit velocity ranks ahead of players such as Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Torkelson has improved from last year in terms of hitting pitches over the heart of the plate. His line-drive rate is up from 25.9 percent to 31.3 percent. On a few occasions, we have seen him tap into his pull-side power. So why are the results not yet coming in full? It’s a bit difficult to discern, because all the metrics are favorable. His .278 BABIP is low but not completely out of whack. That leads to a conclusion that is harder to measure, but Torkelson’s overall approach can still seem inconsistent, overly passive or simply not dialed in.
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As Torkelson’s at-bat total grows higher, it could be tempting to write him off as a player who will never reach the lofty expectations set for him out of Arizona State. And yet … there are so many signs of a hitter who can do serious damage. As badly as Torkelson needs a breakthrough month, his team could use it even more.
Cue the groans. Many Tigers fans are already long tired of hearing about Javier Báez — how he is not quite as bad as the optics suggest, how despite a poor start he has been one of the best defenders in baseball, how he is tied for fifth among in MLB shortstops in RBIs.
Realistically, Báez is never going to be the type of hitter who can carry this lineup. Other than his career year in 2019, he never really has been that type of player. But Báez can still be a strong complementary piece, and his streakiness tends to mean that just when you’re about sick of watching his at-bats, the ball will start flying. We talked a few weeks ago about how Báez is striking out at the lowest clip of his career. That’s still true, though Báez has since gone an ice-cold 12-for-77 since May 17. He still chases as much as any hitter in baseball and has little interest in drawing walks.
But doesn’t Báez seem due to start barreling up balls at some point this summer? Peer into the metrics, and that’s the real outlier — Báez historically has a barrel rate of at least 8 percent. This year, he is at only 3 percent, and he has a mere three home runs and a 59 wRC+ as a result.
Báez is no singular solution. But there’s a strong chance he’ll go on a tear, perhaps sometime soon. If he and Torkelson could get going at the same time, maybe the Tigers could tread water until Greene returns. The Tigers have scored only nine runs in seven games since Greene went on the IL.
Javier Báez has 11 hits in his last 77 at-bats. pic.twitter.com/oJwE6Q4k01
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 6, 2023
This is the common refrain on social media: Send X player down! Bring X player up! For most of this season, Justyn-Henry Malloy has been the proverbial hope down at Triple-A Toledo. The Tigers, though, have yet to promote Malloy to the major leagues.
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Take a cursory glance at Malloy’s numbers — a .270 average, .414 on-base percentage and eight home runs — and it would be fair to wonder why. The Tigers have their reasons. For example, after hitting .341 in April, Malloy has since cooled in a drastic way. He hit only .205 in May. On the season, the right-handed batter is hitting only .167 against left-handed pitching. And though his plate discipline should be a skill that transfers well to the majors, Malloy’s defense is also a major work in progress. Evaluators have long doubted his ability to play third base. In recent days, Malloy has begun playing left field (where he played last year in the Braves’ system), a move that was planned even before Greene’s injury as a means of giving Malloy positional options.
Of all the hitters in Toledo, Malloy has looked like the most natural option to earn a big-league promotion. That might happen at some point this summer, but it’s clear the Tigers are in no rush.
What if the Tigers’ biggest in-house difference maker is still in Double A? It is beginning to look like a real possibility. Colt Keith was named the Eastern League’s Player of the Month for May after hitting an absurd .374 with six home runs and a .670 slugging percentage. The left-handed hitter has left little doubt he is the most advanced hitter in the Tigers’ system. And as a result, his timeline to the majors could be getting accelerated. There are 17 games remaining in the first half of the Double A season, and chances are Keith will remain in Erie until then. But Tigers officials have already entertained the idea of moving Keith to Triple-A Toledo, and if he thrives there, it could be a short stay.
Keith’s bat looks for real, but like Malloy, defense is another matter. Keith, listed as a third baseman, has started playing more at second. If the Tigers view him as serviceable at either spot, he could debut sooner than most expected.
Here’s every hit from Colt Keith in May. Not hard to see why he won player of the month. pic.twitter.com/7002S9eiye
— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) June 6, 2023
Just hit fastballs! It’s easy, right?
Easier said than done, yes. But even with evidence of better strike-zone control, the Tigers have still struggled in a fundamental area at the plate. Simply put: They can’t hit fastballs. The Tigers, per Sports Info Solutions, rank 29th with minus-9.5 fastball runs. Kerry Carpenter, Akil Baddoo and Nick Maton are the only Detroit hitters who have performed above the league average against fastballs. Others such as Jake Rogers (.074), Jonathan Schoop (.179), Miguel Cabrera (.206), Tyler Nevin (.182) and Báez (.156) have struggled mightily against four-seamers.
There’s no easy solution here, outside of a long-term goal to acquire more hitters who can pounce on the fastball. But for as much as we obsess over strikeouts and walk rates, hitting the fastball is also an integral part of winning in the strike zone. Even in today’s breaking-ball heavy game, getting fastballs is generally a product of being in good counts. Taking advantage of them means seeing fewer nasty sliders and curveballs.
Until the Tigers can find a way to do that, it might be more tough sledding.
(Top photo of Spencer Torkelson: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)
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